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ANALYSIS-New German FDP leader fails to set new tone

06 Apr 2011 14:35

Source: reuters // Reuters

m * New FDP leader criticised for weak start

* Merkel's coalition faces further turbulence

By Erik Kirschbaum BERLIN, April 6 (Reuters) - The designated new head of Germany's slumping Free Democrats has been weakened by a failure to clear dead weight in the party leadership, dimming hopes of a clear break with the past.

Philipp Roesler, a soft-spoken 38-year-old doctor, only reluctantly agreed to replace his unpopular mentor, Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle, as FDP chairman and Vice Chancellor in Chancellor Angela Merkel's centre-right coalition on Tuesday.

But Health Minister Roesler, adopted as a Vietnamese war orphan at the age of nine months by a German couple, was unable to remove from the cabinet either Westerwelle or Economy Minister Rainer Bruederle -- whose job Roesler clearly wanted.

"Oh my, what big changes in the FDP," wrote the Sueddeutsche Zeitung in a sarcastic editorial. "The old boss leaves, sort of. The health minister becomes the new boss, almost by accident. That's it. Everyone else stays. It's a shakeup that wasn't."

Pollsters identify the ineffective and abrasive Westerwelle, in particular, but also 65-year-old Bruederle, known for his rambling speeches, as the key factors for the FDP's steep slide.

The FDP's anaemic condition and the prospect of further turbulence is raising concern about the stability of Merkel's coalition.

Roesler will not formally take over until a party congress in May, but commentators wasted no time in pouring scorn on the half-hearted shakeup, predicting it will not stop the erosion.

"The public's view of Westerwelle as foreign minister is extremely negative," said Forsa polling institute's director Manfred Guellner. "Not a lot is going to change as long as he is able to hold on to the foreign ministry."

Roesler's predicament is that Westerwelle, who led the FDP for 10 years, nurtured his career. Roesler and other Westerwelle acolytes such as the even younger deputy party leader Christian Lindner, who is 32, have remained loyal.

That raises questions about who will be really calling the shots in the FDP.

"The FDP's problem is that there's no real power centre any more," said Gerd Langguth, Bonn University political scientist. "It seems decisions are being made by chance rather than merit."

One of the most telling illustrations of the chaotic situation in the FDP was captured by TV news cameras in the Reichstag on Tuesday -- and broadcast repeatedly all evening.

Bruederle was entering an elevator filled with lawmakers from the opposition SPD, who cheered him for unexpectedly avoiding the sack. Bruederle acknowledged the applause -- even though it came from the wrong side -- with a broad smile.

NOT SURE CHANGES SUFFICIENT

One conservative leader expressed concerns that the changes announced on Tuesday will not go far enough.

"I'm not sure we've heard the final word on changes coming in the FDP," the senior conservative source told Reuters, noting that the FDP party congress in May could still force out Westerwelle, Bruderle and other unpopular FDP leaders.

"I'm not sure it's enough," the source added. "It's a worry for all of us. It's uncertain how things will develop and how the party will react."

Roesler is nevertheless expected to at least try to make the FDP attractive for voters for more than the single tax-cutting issue it pushed under Westerwelle. He also wants to make the FDP less of a "one-man show".

A new poll by Forsa showed support for Merkel's coalition in free fall, with her conservatives down 3 percentage points at 30 percent and the FDP down 2 points to 3 percent. [ID:nLDE7350M9]

That is a far-cry from the 14.6 percent the FDP won in the 2009 election and it is even below the 5 percent threshold needed to obtain seats in parliament.

The opposition Greens, meanwhile, surged 7 points to a record 28 percent and their preferred partners, the centre-left Social Democrats (SPD), were down 2 points to 23 percent.

FDP weakness could cause tension in Merkel's coalition. It could lead the FDP to manoeuvre for popularity at the expense of conservative partners. It could also trigger unpredictable moves by nervous lawmakers as the 2013 election nears.

Roesler, who has said he plans to quit politics by age 45, was eager to take on the more prestigious post of economy minister. Health ministers in Germany traditionally have a low standing, often burdened with bad news to announce.

Roesler was economy minister in the state of Lower Saxony in 2009 and was eager to use that post on a federal level to raise his profile. But Bruederle refused to budge.

Even the conservative Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung daily took a dim view of the half-hearted changes in the FDP.

"It's unlikely that any voters are going to believe the FDP that these changes are the beginning of a new era," it wrote.

Rolf Kleine, a columnist in Germany's best-selling Bild daily, wrote: "The FDP changed horses but the carriage is still badly damaged. The party put a heavy burden on their new leader...by leaving him saddled with heavy weights."

(editing by Ralph Boulton)