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ANALYSIS-Russia's Syria shift a bid to guard image, interests

16 Dec 2011 21:43

Source: reuters // Reuters

* Hedging bets, Moscow seeks influence under any outcome

* Russia seeks to shed image of chief Assad ally

* Also wants to avoid looking weak in face of West

By Steve Gutterman

MOSCOW, Dec 16 (Reuters) - Russia's offer of a new U.N. Security Council resolution on the violence in Syria is a pragmatic step by a country increasingly isolated in its support for a widely discredited leader.

The shift allows Russia to look less recalcitrant without giving ground on its opposition to sanctions or foreign military interference, which it has vociferously opposed since the NATO operation in Libya.

With the death toll mounting in bloodshed the world blames mostly on Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, the Kremlin is under increasing pressure to abandon a government that has given Moscow one of its firmest footholds in the Middle East.

It took a small step in that direction on Thursday, circulating a draft resolution that refers to "disproportionate use of force" by the Syrian authorities and urges them to stop "the suppression of those exercising their rights".

In the short term, analysts said, Russia sees that it must distance itself from Assad in the eyes of the world.

"Russia is changing its position because to completely defend the Syrian regime is impossible given that everyone is against it, including practically all the Arab nations," said Fyodor Lukyanov, editor of the journal Russia in Global Affairs.

"The point is to show that Russia favours a settlement but is not a protector of Assad's regime," he said.

Russia has hosted Syrian opposition groups in recent months, but has rebuffed their pleas to press Assad to step down. Its diplomats have frequently said his opponents share much of the blame for the bloodshed.

In October, Russia and China used their veto power as permanent U.N. Security Council members to block passage of a Western-drafted resolution that would have condemned Syria's government, calling it one-sided.

INCREASING PRESSURE

Western nations said Russia's own draft made an unacceptable attempt to assign equal blame to the government and opponents.

The proximate cause for presenting a new one may have been a report this week in which U.N. human rights chief Navi Pillay said the death toll in nine months of protest exceeded 5,000 and that Syria's actions could constitute crimes against humanity.

"We think that it's because Russia has felt the pressure of the international community, especially after the shocking report of Mrs. Pillay," French U.N. Ambassador Gerard Araud said.

Longer term, Russia is hedging its bets on a game whose outcome is unclear.

Syria has been a major client for Russian arms sales and hosts a Russian naval maintenance facility on its Mediterranean coast, a rare outpost abroad for Moscow's military.

Assad has been perhaps the closest Russia has to an ally in a region where a year of unrest has set back its efforts to build influence and economic clout.

But short of the restoration of Syria's pre-protest status quo, the best result for Russia would be a negotiated solution, especially if Moscow can claim credit.

That would be a big diplomatic victory for Russia on the world stage and would help it gain purchase in Syria in the future, something that would be out of the question if Assad's opponents prevail and Russia is seen as backing him to the end.

LIBYA FACTOR

Analysts said, however, that Russia will hold out against sanctions as long as possible, a strategy that may be supported by the draft resolution.

Any further movement is likely to be incremental because the Kremlin fears a sharp shift on Syria would be seen as a sign of weakness in the face of the West, unwelcome as Prime Minister Vladimir Putin prepares for a presidential election in March.

Russia drew a line in the sand over Syria after voicing anger over NATO air strikes that helped Libyan rebels oust Muammar Gaddafi.

Moscow had let the NATO operation go ahead by abstaining in the Security Council vote that authorised it, but then accused the alliance of overstepping its mandate to protect civilians.

Putin likened the resolution to "medieval calls for crusades" at the time, and in a call-in show televised live on Thursday he again assailed the West over Libya, suggesting Gaddafi had been hounded to his death by American pilotless drones and NATO special forces egging rebels on.

But he has said little publicly about Syria, leaving open the possibility of Russia's stance evolving further.

For now, proposing a resolution, even one that Western nations say needs changes, strengthens Russia's role in the struggle for a solution. The Russian draft calls for observers to deploy under an Arab League plan that Moscow has supported.

In a sign it is eager for such influence, Moscow has repeatedly suggested that Russia and its partners in the BRICS group of emerging market nations - China, Brazil, India and South Africa, which are all currently in the Security Council - could also send monitors if asked. (Additional reporting by Alexei Anishchuk in Moscow and Patrick Worsnip at the United Nations; Editing by Alistair Lyon)