Print version Email to a friend

ANALYSIS-Serbia faces tough choices on path to EU

13 Oct 2011 14:11

Source: reuters // Reuters

* EU accession talks rest on cooperation with Kosovo

* Serbia rejects Kosovo's Western-backed independence

* West trying to loosen Serbia's hold on north Kosovo

By Matt Robinson

BELGRADE, Oct 13 (Reuters) - A cynic might say it was coordinated.

On Wednesday, the European Commission recommended that Serbia become an official candidate for membership of the European Union, and dangled the carrot of accession talks if it stops obstructing the independence of its former Kosovo province.

On Thursday, NATO peacekeepers in majority Albanian Kosovo launched an operation to close smuggling routes in the mainly Serb north and squeeze Serb roadblocks erected to halt the encroachment of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian authorities.

Liberal Serbian daily Danas said the message to Serbia from Brussels was clear: "European Union or Kosovo".

Serbian President Boris Tadic -- who likes to say "there is no alternative to Europe" but whose government props up northern Kosovo -- has some unpalatable decisions ahead.

"What's being asked of them (Serbia) is to give unmistakable signals that they accept both the territorial integrity of Kosovo and its de facto statehood, which amounts to recognition in all but name," said Marko Prelec of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group think-tank.

Serbia lost control over its southern Kosovo province in 1999, when NATO bombed for 78 days to halt the killing and expulsion of ethnic Albanian civilians in a counter-insurgency war under then Yugoslav strongman Slobodan Milosevic.

In 2008, after years of stagnation and legal limbo, the territory of 1.7 million declared independence with the backing of Western powers. More than 80 countries have recognised it, including the United States and most of the EU.

DIVIDED

But a small slice of Kosovo's north, where Serbs dominate, is resisting, and the young country has settled into a so-called 'soft' partition, de facto divided along ethnic lines.

The north largely functions as part of the Serbian state, while Serbia's rejection of Kosovo statehood is obstructing its ability to act at a regional level, let alone on the international stage.

Diplomats and analysts say Belgrade has long been holding out for de jure partition of a territory steeped in history and myth for many Serbs.

This is a non-starter for the West, and Europe has begun to turn the screws to loosen Belgrade's hold over the north and cooperate with Pristina.

Key was a visit by German Chancellor Angela Merkel to Belgrade in August, after armed Serbs in the north had repelled an attempt by Kosovo's police to take control of two border crossings in the north in a row over customs.

Merkel made it clear partition was off the table, and said that Belgrade should abolish so-called parallel structures, Serb state institutions in Kosovo, "and not build new ones" if it wanted to clinch candidate status.

Then in September, NATO helicopters flew over Serb barricades to take EU and Kosovo police and customs officers to the northern border gates, extending the writ of Kosovo's ethnic Albanian authorities and serving notice to Belgrade that it would not be stopped.

The Serb roadblocks remain, but for how long?

"The European Union and the rest of the engaged international community want to finish off the Kosovo-Serbia conflict and they see this ... as the right time to do it, so the pressure on Serbia right now is and will remain exceptionally high," said Prelec.

ROADBLOCKS

On Thursday, NATO said it was moving to close off alternative, illegal border crossings that had opened up, thereby putting pressure on Serbs to remove their barricades to allow goods through the Kosovo-controlled gates.

The European Union is expected to accept the Commission's recommendation that Serbia be granted candidate status in December. But talks on accession will only begin when Serbia meets a raft of conditions on Kosovo.

These include "steps to normalise relations", regional cooperation, and cooperation to allow the EU's police and justice mission in Kosovo (EULEX) to function "in all parts of Kosovo" -- i.e. the north.

At its most basic level, this means the removal of the Serb barricades. But in essence, it amounts to reconciling with Kosovo statehood.

Serbia watched fellow ex-Yugoslav republic Slovenia join the EU in 2004, and will see Croatia join in 2013. Two decades after socialist Yugoslavia imploded in war, Montenegro on the Adriatic coast was told on Wednesday it could begin accession talks.

Recent polls suggest support in Serbia for EU membership fell below 50 percent after the latest spike in tension over Kosovo.

Tadic's hands appear tied until after a parliamentary election expected by May 2012, when nationalists will again make a strong challenge for power and potentially slam the brakes on Serbia's EU integration.

Much will depend on whether NATO tries to remove the Serb barricades by force, and Kosovo takes further steps to rein in the north, where confrontation can quickly escalate.

"The parties in the governing coalition aren't in a position to make major compromises," said Serbian political analyst Professor Predrag Simic.

"I'm not sure Serbia will be in a position any time soon to make those bigger compromises on Kosovo, especially if the situation in the north worsens." (Writing by Matt Robinson)