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Australian PM faces growing leadership tensions

Mon, 20 Jun 2011 08:52 GMT

Source: reuters // Reuters

By James Grubel

CANBERRA, June 20 (Reuters) - Australian Prime Minister Julia Gillard's unpopular leadership is facing a new problem with speculation the man she toppled a year ago wants his old job back, adding a new element of instability to her minority government.

Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd prompted talk that he may be positioning himself for a return to head the Labor Party after he gave a series of newspaper interviews on the anniversary of his dumping.

"Have no doubt: Rudd is waging a comeback campaign," former Labor Party leader Mark Latham wrote in the Australian Financial Review on Monday. "He is going over the heads of Labor MPs and appealing directly to the people."

The Labor party ditched Rudd on June 24 last year in favour of Gillard, whose increasingly unpopular minority government survives only with the support from Greens and three independent lawmakers.

A weekend poll found Gillard's support had hit a new low, with 60 percent of voters favouring Rudd to lead the Labor party, compared to 31 percent for Gillard. Rudd also remains popular in his home state of Queensland.

Elections are not due until 2013, but if the minority Labor government loses just one MP then the government could fall and the opposition take power.

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Rudd made no comment on Monday, but in weekend newspaper interviews said he had been reflecting on losing the prime ministership and conceded he should have listened more to his colleagues.

It is a crucial time for Gillard, who is in the final weeks of negotiating details of a carbon tax, and who wants to push a 30 percent tax on big coal and iron ore mines through parliament by the end of 2011 -- both sensitive issues.

With her one-seat majority, Gillard is unlikely to dare sack her foreign minister as that could prompt Rudd to quit parliament and force a by-election, which could result in a change of government.

The Greens and key independents have warned Labor against changing leaders by saying their agreement to support a Labor minority government relied on Gillard remaining as leader.

Some analysts said Rudd was not seriously trying to raise support to challenge Gillard. His interviews, they said, were designed to remind voters he was a long-term alternative.

"Forget the speculation. Kevin Rudd doesn't have the numbers to seize the leadership of the Labor party from Julia Gillard - at least not among his caucus colleagues," wrote the Australian newspaper's senior political correspondent Matthew Franklin.

"His weekend assurance he had learned from the mistakes of his time as prime minister was a siren call to the caucus. But, despite all the hoopla, very few are listening."

Former Queensland state Labor leader Peter Beattie said the party tensions must be resolved and that it would be best if Rudd stood down as foreign minister and eventually left politics.

"I fully understand the difficulty of a by-election, but some time on the backbench, followed by a dignified exit would put Rudd in history as a man interested in good government and not himself," Beattie wrote on Monday. (Editing by Jonathan Thatcher)