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INSIGHT-Divided by common foe, Israel and U.S. tangle over Iran

Thu, 23 Feb 2012 13:27 GMT

Source: reuters // Reuters

* Iran nuclear standoff to top Obama-Netanyahu agenda

* U.S. election important factor in Iranian equation

* Israel wary of time-wasting as Iran builds "immunity zone"

By Jeffrey Heller and Matt Spetalnick

JERUSALEM/WASHINGTON, Feb 23 (Reuters) - Ever since their first awkward encounter - a hastily arranged meeting in a custodian's office at a Washington airport in 2007 - Iran has been one of the few issues on which Barack Obama and Benjamin Netanyahu have been able to find some common ground.

Nearly five years ago, neither man was yet in power but both hoped to be, and though they were very different politicians they grabbed the opportunity to size each other up when their paths crossed.

The Israeli right-winger came across, at first, as strident in his views, while the newly declared Democratic presidential candidate seemed wary. But when Netanyahu insisted on the urgent need to do more to isolate Iran economically and Obama said "tell me more," the mood suddenly brightened, according to one account of the meeting.

It was part of what Netanyahu, who first served as prime minister from 1996 to 1999, has described as a 15-year personal effort to "broaden as much as possible the international front against Iran", a foe that has called for Israel's destruction.

Obama, then a first-term U.S. senator, would go on to introduce an Iran divestment bill in Congress on the way to winning the White House in the 2008 election.

Now, with Obama and Netanyahu due to meet in Washington on March 5, the Iranian nuclear standoff will again top the agenda. But this time, a trust deficit between the two leaders could make it harder to decide what action to take against the Islamic Republic over its nuclear program.

The Obama administration, increasingly concerned about the lack of any assurance from Israel that it would consult Washington before launching strikes on Iran's nuclear sites, has scrambled in recent weeks to convince Israeli leaders to give sanctions and diplomacy more time to work, U.S. officials say.

Israel has been listening - but after a series of high-level U.S. visits there is no sign it has been swayed.

Defence Minister Ehud Barak, who along with Netanyahu met U.S. National Security Adviser Tom Donilon last week, complained privately afterward that Washington is lobbying for a delay in any Israeli attack on Iran while time is running out for such a strike to be effective, Israeli political sources said.

Barak has spoken publicly of an Iranian "zone of immunity" to aerial attack, a reference to the start of additional uranium enrichment at a remote site believed to be buried beneath 80 metres (265 feet) of rock and soil near the city of Qom.

Donilon's visit to Israel coincided with a cautionary note from General Martin Dempsey, chairman of the U.S. joint chiefs of staff, who told CNN it would be "premature to exclusively decide that the time for a military option was upon us".

The United States, Dempsey said, has counselled Israel "that it's not prudent at this point to decide to attack Iran". He said sanctions were beginning to have an effect and it is still unclear whether Tehran would choose to make a nuclear weapon.

Obama and top aides have said they do not believe Israel has made a decision to attack Iran even as they caution about devastating consequences in the Middle East - and potentially around the globe - if it does so.

U.S. intelligence sources say they would expect little or no advance notice from Israel, except possibly as a courtesy call when any bombing mission is at the point of no return. But one line of thinking within the Obama administration is that this might be best for the United States since any sign of complicity would inflame the Muslim world.

"When it comes to something that the Israeli government considers essential to Israel's security, they will take whatever action they deem necessary, even if there is a level of disagreement with other countries, including the United States," said Michael Herzog, a former chief of staff to Barak and now an international fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East policy.

Obama and his national security team have yet to determine how the United States would respond if Israel does attack Iran, one U.S. official said. But the growing chorus of warnings from Washington - Israel's biggest source of military assistance - serves as a stark message of the potential fallout in relations between the two longtime allies.

The debate over the possibility of an Israeli strike has exposed an important difference of opinion over Iran, which says it is enriching uranium for peaceful purposes.

"We are of the opinion that the Iranian regime is a rational actor," Dempsey said in the CNN interview. "And it's for that reason, I think, that we think the current path we're on is the most prudent path at this point."

Netanyahu has made clear he believes that kind of thinking is wrong-headed.

"Since the dawn of the nuclear age, we have not had a fanatic regime that might put its zealotry above its self-interest," he told The Atlantic in 2009. "People say that they'll behave like any other nuclear power. Can you take the risk? Can you assume that?"

ELECTION OPPORTUNITY

An Israeli strike ahead of the November 6 U.S. elections would put Obama in a serious political bind.

Already defending himself against Republican accusations that he has been too tough on Israel and not tough enough on Iran, he would be reluctant, at least initially, to come down hard on Netanyahu for fear of undercutting support among Jewish voters and other pro-Israel constituencies as he seeks re-election.

It's that perceived window of opportunity for Israel to strike at a time when incumbent candidate Obama might be shy about challenging Netanyahu that has helped to fuel speculation of an Israeli attack soon.

But for Netanyahu to go ahead with an attack in defiance of Washington, he would risk not only damaging his country's most crucial alliance but also face the near-certain prospect of Iranian retaliation with no immediate U.S. military help - or even a commitment to provide any.

More likely, Obama and Netanyahu will try to keep their differences behind closed doors and present a united front against Iran in next month's talks.

Any further public rift between the two leaders, who will meet a day before the Super Tuesday voting contests in which 10 states hold presidential primaries or caucuses, would likely be seized upon by Republican candidates looking for ammunition against Obama.

And, for the second straight year, Netanyahu will be able to emerge from any White House chill into the warm embrace of the powerful pro-Israel lobby, the American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC), whose annual convention he will address in Washington.

But Israel, in weighing military action, faces the risk of a backlash from Congress and the American public if oil prices spike during a still-fragile economic recovery or if the United States is hit by revenge attacks on its interests around the world.

"It's the law of unintended consequences," said an outside expert who advises the White House on national security. "This could lead to the first real reassessment in a generation of how America and Americans feel about Israel."

One American Jewish leader who knows both leaders played down the prospects of any dramatic shift in U.S.-Israeli relations.

Malcolm Hoenlein, executive vice chairman of the Conference of Presidents of Major American Jewish Organizations, told Reuters that strong bipartisan understanding for what he called Israel's "responsibility to its citizens" meant that "nothing" would happen to ties between the two countries.

Last May, Netanyahu received 29 standing ovations when he addressed a joint meeting of Congress at the invitation of its Republican leadership. In the run-up to the