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INSTANT VIEW 6-Reaction to Moscow airport blast

Mon, 24 Jan 2011 17:18 GMT

Source: reuters // Reuters

MOSCOW, Jan 24 (Reuters) - Russian stock markets and the rouble weakened on Monday after news that at least 31 people were killed and more than 100 injured in a suicide bomb blast at Russia's biggest airport Domodedovo. [ID:nLDE70N1JG]

Below is a selection of comments about the attack:

TEYMUR HUSEYNOV, HEAD OF EURASIA DESK, EXCLUSIVE ANALYSIS

"There is lax security at the arrivals gate so you can easily park your car or take a train to the airport and enter. There is no limitation on the entry of people who are meeting those arriving."

"They are approaching the election period in Russia -- in December 2011 parliamentary elections and in March 2012 presidential elections -- so different insurgent groups, many of whom are not necessarily coordinated with each other apart from the loosely coordinated Caucasus emirate, are likely to attempt to undertake such attacks in order to damage the image of the state and especially the image and reputation of the prime minister and the security services."

"The confrontation between the slavic and ethnic Caucasian communities is exactly the kind of event this kind of terrorist action can lead to.

If we continue on this trend we are definitely likely to see more attempts by these groups to strike key Moscow assets. It's difficult to do it (stage attacks) in central Moscow, apart from soft transport assets, but it's easier to do it against the airport."

JUSTIN CRUMP, CEO, SIBYLLINE SECURITY CONSULTANCY

"This was almost certainly the Islamic Emirate of the Caucasus. We've seen before how terrorists have attacked Russian aviation by bribing their way on board, something that's very possible on internal flights in Russia"

GLEN HOWARD, PRESIDENT OF U.S. JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION RESEARCH INSTITUTION

"The recent riots in December by Russian nationalists at Manezkha Square have created a dangerous environment in Moscow whereby Putin is seen backing the nationalists, while the peoples of the North Caucasus feel that Moscow is taking sides by backing the nationalists."

"The attacks in Moscow are going to further exacerbate the tensions created by the right wing demonstrations in Moscow and may result in further pogroms against people from the North Caucasus.

"It does not forebode well for Russian ties to the North Caucasus and is yet another sign that what Putin started in 1999 by invading the rebellious republic of Chechnya has come home to roost again in the Russian capital.

"The bomb blast at Domodedovo will further strengthen the view among the Russian elite that Putin is losing control over security in the capital, which plays into the hands of his enemies, who I am sure you can now count as (dismissed Moscow mayor Yuri) Luzhkov and others."

PAUL ROGERS, PROFESSOR OF PEACE STUDIES, UNIVERSITY OF BRADFORD, UK

"As to the likely suspects, one would have to say Caucasus, mostly likely Chechen-connected. There is a secondary possibility of a criminal network, ie some sort of extortion. That's a possibility, but lower down the list."

MATTHEW CLEMENTS, IHS JANE'S EURASIA ANALYST

"From initial reports it seems to have been a suicide bomber. Based on that, I would say the attack is almost certainly going to be associated with militants operating from the North Caucasus. This would be in line with their tactics and strategy, and civilians at airports would be a prime target in that strategy."

ALEXEY SUROV, TRADER, BANK ZENIT

"Based on previous experience with the Russian market falling after terrorists attacks, I don't think the market will stay down on the news for more than several days.

Aeroflot shares are down because investors are afraid the company's revenue will go down, as strengthened security measures will lead to fewer flights and fewer people flying to and out of Moscow."

JOHN WINSELL DAVIES, LEAD FUND PARTNER, WERMUTH ASSET MANAGEMENT

"The Russian RTS <.IRTS> (index) traded higher just five days after the Nord Ost hostage crisis. The RTS straight-line rallied 7.5 percent in the month of September following the Beslan school tragedy. Moscow does not believe in tears."

ZSOLT PAPP, UBP ASSET MANAGEMENT, ZURICH

"If it was a terrorist attack then the timing was well chosen, but I don't think any major investor will be deterred by a bomb attack from investing in any major Russian company. Russia is politically a stable country, remarkably stable, and other factors such as the oil price, play a much bigger role. For the kind of privatisation that the government is lining up -- medium to long-term players -- I don't think this will have an impact."

YEVGENY GONTMAKHER, INSTITUTE OF MODERN DEVELOPMENT

"This tragic event will in no way influence Russia's business climate, which is (already) unfavourable. The business climate is determined by more stable circumstances such as corruption and state interference with business, not by one-off events like this"

ALEXEI BACHYURIN, TRADER, RENAISSANCE CAPITAL

"It (the blast) is moving the market in the short term, but there is no fundamental reason for the market to fall. If you remember, the market didn't react strongly to (previous blasts).

It is negative for airlines as it is clear that the rules will be tightened. The market went down as it was ready to go down -- a lot of long positions were opened. All depends now on the United States. If they close up, we will open normally."

FOREX TRADER AT MAJOR RUSSIAN BANK

"If it had been the Kremlin, it would have been a problem (for markets). But when it's a social building like Domodedovo, it is perceived like a separatists' act. It's our reality. Our financial markets do not react to this."

YAROSLAV LISSOVOLIK, CHIEF STRATEGIST, DEUTSCHE BANK

"I don't think there will be a long term effect... We are already seeing some negative impact (on markets), but in the long run there will increased safety measures on flights and in airports. Gradually this negative impact will disappear, as we saw in past episodes of such events."

VLADIMIR BRAGIN, ANALYST, ALFA BANK

"The blast, and the measures the government undertakes, will affect everything: first the transport industry, then infrastructure as a whole, which will in turn affect the oil sector. Additional security measures that may be introduced will probably scare some investors."

ILYA MAKAROV, ANALYST, ATON

"The market reaction was negative. We had fallen by 1.3 percent (before the blast), and now by around 2.2 percent. The market was down because of Sberbank <SBER03.MM> and Aeroflot <AFLT.MM>, which are both state companies and always react first on such news. There are a lot of emotions." (Reporting by Moscow Newsroom)