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Super cyclonic storm Phailin is forecast to strike India at about 12:00 GMT on 12 October.

Source: Tropical Storm Risk - Fri, 11 Oct 2013 09:56 GMT
Author: Tropical Storm Risk
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Any views expressed in this article are those of the author and not of Thomson Reuters Foundation.

Super cyclonic storm Phailin is forecast to strike India at about 12:00 GMT on 12 October. Data supplied by the US Navy and Air Force Joint Typhoon Warning Center suggest that the point of landfall will be near 18.8 N, 85.1 E. Phailin is expected to bring 1-minute maximum sustained winds to the region of around 259 km/h (161 mph). Wind gusts in the area may be considerably higher.

According to the Saffir-Simpson damage scale the potential property damage and flooding from a storm of Phailin's strength (category 5) at landfall includes: Storm surge generally greater than 5.5 metres (18 feet) above normal. Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings. Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down. Complete destruction of mobile homes. Severe and extensive window and door damage. Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the centre of the storm. Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 4.6 metres (15 feet) above sea level and within 460 metres (500 yards) of the shoreline. Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 8-16 km miles (5-10 miles) of the shoreline may be required. There is also the potential for flooding further inland due to heavy rain.

The information above is provided for guidance only and should not be used to make life or death decisions or decisions relating to property. Anyone in the region who is concerned for their personal safety or property should contact their official national weather agency or warning centre for advice.

This alert is provided by Tropical Storm Risk (TSR) which is sponsored by Aon Benfield, Crawford&Company and University College London (UCL).

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