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FACTBOX - Ten ways in which global warming will hit India - UN panel

Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Tue, 1 Apr 2014 17:11 GMT
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Heavy traffic in front of Mumbai's Chhatrapati Shivaji railway station, Victoria terminus, before Earth Hour on March 29, 2014, when everyone in the world is asked to turn off lights for an hour. Picture REUTERS/Mansi Thapliyal
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NEW DELHI (Thomson Reuters Foundation) - The latest report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says countries like India will have a high degree of vulnerability and exposure to global warming which will likely slow economic growth, impact health and development and erode food security.

Here are 10 ways in which IPCC scientists say climate change will hit India.

1. More severe cyclones hitting densely packed cities

The five most populous nations occupying low-lying coastal areas are developing and newly industrialised countries: Bangladesh, China, Vietnam, India and Indonesia

Tropical cyclones will cause powerful winds, torrential rains, high waves and storm surge, all of which can have major impacts on society and ecosystems. Bangladesh and India account for 86 percent of deaths from tropical cyclones.

2. Lower crop yields

A rise in the amount of ozone in the troposphere, the lower atmosphere, since pre-industrial times has probably reduced global yields of major crops, by about 10 percent for wheat and soybean and three to five percent for maize and rice, compared with what they would have been without such a rise.

Impacts are most severe in India and China, but are also evident for soybean and maize in the United States.

3. Changes in breeding of river species

It is fairly clear that in India, changes in a number of climate variables including a rise in air temperature, regional monsoon variation and a regional increase in the frequency of severe storms, have led to changes in the behaviour of fish species in the River Ganga.

As a result, less fish spawn is available for aquaculture in the river Ganga, but the breeding period of carp has been brought forward and extended.

4. Less water, more energy consumption

Due to water shortages, water may require significant amounts of energy for lifting, transport and distribution and for the treatment needed to use it or rid it of pollution.

Groundwater accounts for 35 percent of total global water withdrawal and its use is generally more energy intensive than that of surface water, irrigated food production being the largest user. In India, 19 percent of total electricity use in 2012 was for farming, much of this for groundwater pumping.

5. Higher temperatures in cities

Some Indian cities that are particularly large and crowded will become Urban Heat Islands, markedly warmer than the surrounding countryside, as a result of climate change.

The current trend of increasingly frequent extreme events is expected to increase with climate change.

Some urban centres serving prosperous farming regions are particularly sensitive to climate change if water supply or particular crops are at risk.

Urban centres that are major tourism destinations may suffer when the weather becomes stormy or excessively hot, leading to a loss of revenue.

6. Livelihood pressures in rural areas

Climate variability and change interacts with, and sometimes adds to, existing pressures on living and working in rural areas, affecting economic policy, globalization, environmental degradation and HIV/AIDS, as has been shown in Tanzania, Ghana, South Africa, Malawi, Kenya and India.

Economic diversity of farming households within communities, in terms of farm and household size, crop choices and input use, will be important in determining the impact of climate change, as will social relations within households that affect production.

7. Tourism and recreation

One study combines a meteorological indicator of exposure with indicators of sensitivity and adaptive capacity, and uses this to rank the vulnerability of beach tourism in 51 countries. India stands out as the most vulnerable and Cyprus as the least vulnerable.

8. Human health

Extra costs will be incurred for treating additional cases of diarrhoea and malaria in India in 2030, depending on how greatly CO2 emissions rise.

9. Labour productivity

Higher temperatures are likely to impact work productivity, particularly in tropical and mid-latitude regions including India, Northern Australia, Southeastern USA.

10. Droughts and floods

More droughts and floods will intensify the pressure to send children out to work, impacting their education.

Indian women born during a drought or flood in the 1970s were 19 percent less likely ever to attend primary school than women of the same age who were not affected by natural disasters.

Studies in India have identified temporary migration as "the most important" coping strategy in times of drought in rural villages.

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