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FACTBOX-Political risks to watch in Tanzania

Source: Thomson Reuters Foundation - Mon, 10 Dec 2012 19:01 GMT
Author: Reuters
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By Fumbuka Ng'wanakilala

DAR ES SALAAM, Dec (Reuters) - Tanzania has offered to send 800 troops to neighbouring Democratic Republic of Congo and will lead an international force aimed at neutralising the M23 rebels.

Southern African nations pledged to provide 4,000 troops for a neutral force to be deployed in eastern Congo where the rebels have waged an eight month-long rebellion.

Tanzania was picked by the South African Development Community (SADC) regional block to lead the neutral force.

What to watch out for:

- Likelihood of tension with Rwanda, which has been accused by United Nations experts of both commanding and supporting M23. Rwanda denies the allegations.

PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION

The ruling Chama Cha Mapinduzi (CCM) party, in power since Tanzania's independence from Britain more than 50 years ago, is grappling with infighting as rival politicians look to succeed President Jakaya Kikwete.

Kikwete, who must step down in 2015 at the end of his second and final term in office, faces a tough task of uniting a deeply divided party against a resurgent opposition.

What to watch out for:

- Growing divisions in CCM.

POLITICAL VIOLENCE

The main opposition CHADEMA party accuses the CCM government of trying to thwart its political activities with police stop orders against its demonstrations.

What to watch out for:

-- Police attempts to block opposition demonstrations and public rallies could lead to violence.

OIL AND GAS SEARCH

Activists and some opposition leaders have been calling for a halt to new deals until the country regulates the sector. The government aims to have a new gas policy and legislation before year end.

Tanzania says any significant oil or gas finds in Lake Malawi could escalate a long-standing territorial dispute over the area with Malawi, which claims sole ownership.

What to watch out for:

- Licensing of more blocks for oil and gas exploration could be delayed.

CONTRACT REVIEWS

Officials have announced plans to review gas and mining contracts, concerning foreign investors who want reassurance that the government will maintain a stable regulatory environment.

The government is under pressure from politicians and the public to increase revenues from mining and energy sectors.

What to watch out for:

- Shifting of goalposts could stifle investment.

CORRUPTION

Donors and opposition leaders have questioned the government's commitment to fighting corruption, and investors have cited graft as one of the reasons for the high cost of doing business in the country.

What to watch out for:

- Will Tanzania score major corruption convictions? (Editing by Duncan Miriri and Louise Heavens)

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