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Mexico ruling party picks presidential candidate, woman leads

Fri, 3 Feb 2012 20:30 GMT

Source: reuters // Reuters

By Mica Rosenberg

MEXICO CITY, Feb 3 (Reuters) - Mexico's ruling conservative party could push aside a close ally of President Felipe Calderon and instead nominate its first female presidential candidate this weekend in a hotly contested primary election.

The National Action Party, or PAN, is the last party to pick its candidate ahead of the July 1 election, while the opposition Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI, has had more time to unite behind front-runner Enrique Pena Nieto.

Recent polls show PAN supporters will back former education minister and congresswoman Josefina Vazquez Mota in the PAN's primary and believe she has the best chance of beating Pena Nieto, a telegenic former governor.

Polls published by newspapers on Friday showed Vazquez Mota with a lead of almost 30 percentage points over her two closest rivals, former finance minister Ernesto Cordero and former interior minister Santiago Creel.

The fight for the nomination has been tarnished by mud-slinging but analysts expect only the most devoted PAN voters will turn out to vote - likely only a half or a third of the party's 1.8 million registered members.

Cordero is seen as more of a PAN insider than Vazquez Mota and one of Calderon's most devoted loyalists with more capacity to mobilize party faithful to the ballot boxes. That could lead to a closer race than predicted by opinion polls.

Vazquez Mota is a petite 51-year-old who served in Calderon's cabinet. She has been careful not to criticize him directly, even as he comes under fire for failing to control rising drug violence that has killed more than 47,000 people in five years.

She touts herself, however, as more of an outsider than Cordero. She would be the first woman to lead Mexico if she wins the July vote. Calderon cannot run for re-election.

To avoid a second round vote on Feb. 19 one candidate either has to win more than 50 percent of votes or have at least 37 percent and a 5 percentage point lead over the runner-up. Creel, the popular pick to win the party's nomination in 2006, lost after Calderon was able to rally the party machine in his favor.

A second round would weaken the PAN and drain energy needed for the national race. "There will be deep internal divisions that will have to be healed and that takes time," agreed Irma Mendez de Hoyos from the Flacso think-tank in Mexico.

National polls show Pena Nieto leading Vazquez Mota by nearly 20 percentage points and critics say the mother-of-three lacks the charisma of the well-coifed favorite.

Left-wing parties chose Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador as their candidate back in November. He narrowly lost to Calderon in 2006 and is a formidable campaigner although polls show that he is also trailing well behind Pena Nieto.

The PRI, which ruled Mexico for seven decades before the PAN won power in 2000, is presenting Pena Nieto, 45, as a fresh face who will leave behind the party's corrupt and autocratic past.

But many of his backers are from the PRI's old guard and Vazquez Mota hopes to capitalize on fears that it will slip back into old habits if it wins the election.

"Mexico cannot afford to go back to the authoritarianism of the past, or to populism," said Vazquez Mota in a recent debate between the three PAN hopefuls where she was chided by Cordero and Creel for dodging direct questions. (Editing by Daniel Wallis and Kieran Murray)