Antonio Zappulla Trust Conference Opening Remarks: 21st October

Key takeaways:

• Global democratic decline is at a 50-year low: Antonio addresses an unprecedented “control-alt-delete” moment in world order, with autocracies now outnumbering democracies, affecting nearly six billion people under autocratic rule.
• Three drivers are reshaping the world: the changing role of the United States in international leadership and multilateralism, rapid technological transformation through AI adoption, and the increasing weaponisation of laws to silence journalists, activists, and legal professionals worldwide.
• Devastating aid cuts are impacting vulnerable populations: Dramatic reductions in US foreign aid (below $29 billion) combined with similar cuts across the UK, France, Germany and Switzerland are dismantling essential health, climate, and food security programmes.
• Attacks are surging on press freedom and civil society: With over 360 journalists currently imprisoned globally, systematic crackdowns include through foreign agent laws, funding restrictions, surveillance, and the criminalisation of dissent.
• AI will shape the future of democracy: As AI companies reach a combined market cap of $22 trillion with potential to boost global GDP by 15%, urgent questions are emerging about content moderation, surveillance, techno-authoritarianism – and who will control AI’s regulatory framework in an increasingly polarised world.

A video recording of Antonio’s opening remarks will be embedded onto this page soon.

Full transcript

Hello everyone.

Welcome to Trust Conference.

It’s great to be back on this stage, and to see all of you here with us today.

Whether you are new to Trust Conference, or whether you are one of the many returning delegates, thank you for joining us.

Each year, Trust Conference brings together business, media, legal and civil society leaders who share a simple commitment: a commitment to protect and to advance free, fair and informed societies.

Over the next two days, we expect to host more than 700 participants representing 45 different countries. This, I believe, is testament to the critical need for this conference, and for our work, at the Thomson Reuters Foundation.

It’s been exactly a year since we last met here at Trust Conference. And what a year it has been. It’s no exaggeration to say that this has been a period of unprecedented disruption. We are witnessing a ‘control-alt-delete’ moment, one that is rebooting the world order as we know it. The tectonic plates of geopolitics, economics, and ideology are shifting. The decline of multilateralism, the surge in nationalism and protectionism, and the rise of strong, often autocratic leaders, is reshaping societies and institutions all over the world.

Nothing is spared. International relations, international trade, international development, the arts, academia, business. Every sector is facing turmoil, shock and uncertainty. And those holding the line: activists, journalists and legal practitioners, are in the eye of the storm.

Let’s be clear. This is not some dystopian projection into the distant future.

This is the lived reality, right here, right now, for billions of people.

We need to abandon the illusion that this is all just a temporary phase, and that everything will eventually go back to the optimistic, functional and collaborative world order of the late 90s and the early 2000s. Because it won’t.

This is a re-set moment, one that will have lasting repercussions for generations to come. And it’s a global re-set.

Look around the room. The number of delegates coming here from all over the world is testament to the global nature of this shift. This is a defining moment for humanity. The decisions that are being taken today will shape the next few decades. And we have a shared responsibility to ensure democracy survives.

My team and I have designed the content of these two days as an opportunity for all of us to challenge ourselves, to forge meaningful connections, but mostly as a moment to take stock, and to help make sense of the way in which the world is tilting.

The global reset

What are the drivers of this global reset?

This year’s programme addresses this huge question, and it’s built around the premise that this reset is being driven by three underlying enablers.

• the changing role of the United States in the world
• the speed of adoption of technological transformation and
• the spread of a trend that turns legislation built to protect people and society, into a tool of retaliation, intimidation and oppression.

We call it ‘weaponisation of the law‘.

For decades, the US has been the dominant super-power, the protector of democracy, of the liberal international order. But today America is re-positioning itself in the world. It’s proactively changing the terms and the rules of engagement. This is triggering a three-dimensional challenge: geopolitical, over security and alliances. Economic, over trade and international aid. And ideological, because America’s new leadership is openly supporting anti-liberal parties around the world, those same political parties supported by Russia.

These challenges are particularly felt here in Europe. The guarantee of US security, which enabled peace in this continent for over a century, is no longer in place. Just look at how the conversation around Ukraine or, in fact, NATO has changed since January.

As a result, around the world, we are witnessing strong political polarisation, the rise of populist parties, and the emergence of new alliances, with China and Russia playing key role on the international stage.

Look at trade.

Uncertainty is the new framework. The BRICS alliance of countries, which includes Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is now calling for a ‘multi-polar world order,’ essentially what China has been quietly championing for several years.

According to Chatham House, 40% of India’s oil and 50% of its military equipment now comes from Russia.

And Brazil, slammed by a 50% trade tariff imposed by the US Administration, has also strengthened its trading partnership with Russia.

This shift in global power dynamics is also being impacted by the huge and abrupt cuts in international aid that undermine the ability of many countries to fight, among other things, poverty, disease, climate change and disinformation.

The United States, the champion of multilateralism, has dramatically scaled back its global engagement.

In March, President Trump announced that his administration was “rejecting and denouncing” the Global Goals agreed by the United Nations in 2015.

The Goals were designed with the ambition to eradicate poverty and to promote sustainable development by 2030.

The shockwaves reverberated around the world.

The severity of the cuts to foreign aid triggered by the Trump administration, have since cascaded to the UK and Europe, shocking even those who sensed they could be coming.

According to the Center for Global Development, by next year, US foreign aid will be less than 29 billion dollars.

The US is not alone in pursuing these measures.

A combination of slow growth, and the end of America’s guaranteed assistance in military security, has seen other countries slashing their aid budgets.

Here in the UK, the government announced a reduction in aid contributions to 0.3% of Gross National Income. The money is being shifted to the national defence budget.

France, Germany and Switzerland have taken similar measures.

And, as ever, it’s the world’s most vulnerable who are being hit hardest.

Essential health programmes, climate adaptation projects, food security initiatives and education programmes in some of the poorest nations on the planet are being dismantled.

In Afghanistan, approximately 420 health facilities have closed, denying 3 million people access to primary health care.

According to UNAIDS, the cut in funding for Prep, the HIV preventing drug, will lead to an increase in HIV transmission estimated in the region of 2,300 new cases per day.

The World Food Programme predicts a 21% reduction in the number of people that will receive assistance this year: that’s 16 million people less than last year. The biggest impact will be felt in Yemen.

According to the World Bank, for the second consecutive year, global poverty reduction has stalled.

The number of people living below the poverty line is rising to more than 830 million. A reversal of a trend that lasted more than a decade.

And this is just the tip of the iceberg.

Independent media has also been hit hard.

Amongst the high-profile examples are Voice of America and Radio Free Europe, which played a fundamental role in the fall of the Iron Curtain.

Soft power has officially been replaced by immediate transactionalism.

That is because America’s inward shift is not just about budget cuts. It’s also about ideology.

And where the US leads, others follow.

The rise of authoritarianism

As the rhetoric of “America First” takes centre stage in both policy and public discourse, we are witnessing a global rise in populism.

A type of populism that champions an Us versus Them rhetoric, often with language, tones and political ideas that only a few years ago seemed unthinkable.

The driving factors behind the rise of this type of populism are almost identical everywhere: declining economic standards, fear of uncontrolled immigration, lack of trust in the media and political institutions, and the desire for a strong political leader who is able to fix the status quo, even if this requires overriding the checks and balances that hold power to account and that are essential to functioning democracies.

According to the Edelman Trust Barometer, which polls 33 thousand people in 28 countries, 61% of Americans agree that the country would be better off if leaders could act “without interference from Courts or Congress”. That’s the highest level in two decades.

Here in Europe, the desire for strong leadership is resonating particularly with the younger generations.

According to a study commissioned by Channel 4, 52% of people aged between 13 and 27 think the UK would be a better place if a strong leader was in charge, and if they “didn’t have to bother with parliament and elections”.

An SWG poll conducted in Italy paints a very similar picture.

In the latest European Elections, it was the younger voters who backed anti-immigration parties.

In Germany, the percentage of 24 to 30 year-olds who voted for the AfD increased by 11% from the previous election.

In France, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally won 30% of the youth vote.

And as a result, the far-right Patriots for Europe Alliance is now the third-largest political group in the European Parliament.

The changing role of the United States in the world, with its lack of interest in multilateralism, its retreat from global cooperation, and its celebration of executive power, is having a seismic impact, eroding the institutions designed to protect the fundamental rights and freedoms of people.

The Global Democracy Attitudes Survey found that across 12 high-income countries including Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Sweden, the UK and the US, on average, 64% of adults are dissatisfied with the way democracy is working.

Only 35% are happy.

Only seven years ago, there was a 50/50 split in attitudes.

When the US steps back from its role as a defender of democratic values, it leaves a vacuum that autocrats are quick to fill.

And so, perhaps, it should come as no surprise that for the first time in decades, autocracies are now outnumbering democracies.

According to the Democracy Report produced by the V-Dem Institute, around the world, there are now 91 elected autocracies and just 88 democracies.

Let’s look at these numbers in terms of people.

It means that less than 12% of the world’s population live in a liberal democracy.

And that’s because almost six billion people – three out of four in the world – now live under autocratic rule.

This is the lowest number of citizens living in a liberal democracy in 50 years.

Autocratic leaders have a lot in common.

They exploit fears stemming from income inequality and rise in immigration.

They champion a nationalist, protectionist agenda.

They support unregulated technology.

They foster a narrative of ‘persecution by the elites’ when held accountable by judges.

They try to weaken and politicise the judiciary.

And they are openly hostile to civil rights activists, lawyers and the media, often introducing legislation that cripples their ability to hold power to account.

Take the media.

According to the latest V-Dem report, freedom of expression is declining in 44 countries, the highest number recorded so far.

According to CPJ, a record number of journalists were jailed last year.

361 reporters are currently behind bars.

China, Israel, Myanmar, Belarus and Russia are the worst offenders.

And last year, more than 60% of the journalists imprisoned were jailed through legal tactics.

30% of them have been sentenced to terms ranging from five to more than 10 years.

Lawfare is indeed a global trend.

Defamation, SLAPPs, Foreign Agents Laws, allegations of financial misconduct and even obstruction of legal representation are increasingly being used to harass, intimidate and silence journalists.

This triggers self-censorship and fuels distrust towards the media.

But lawfare is not only affecting the media.

It’s also hurting activists and lawyers. In other words, it’s making life harder for the three key categories of professionals holding the line.

According to Civicus, almost 73% of the world’s population live in countries that hamper human rights defenders.

The tactics, again, are very similar, everywhere.

We are witnessing an increase in surveillance and censorship, the criminalisation of dissent, and an effort to control and limit the actions of civil society through funding restrictions.

In India, President Modi has revoked the licences of thousands of civil society groups for so-called ‘non-compliance’ with foreign funding rules. Many international NGOs have shut down.

The list includes Oxfam, Amnesty International and World Vision.

They say this is all part of a larger crackdown to stifle criticism of the government.

This systematic weaponisation of existing laws is also evident from the way in which many governments around the world are increasingly using counterterrorism and anti-money laundering laws to target political opponents and those who dissent.

In this context it’s perhaps no surprise that we are also witnessing a surge in physical attacks on human rights and civil rights defenders. The highest number of victims are being reported in Brazil, Colombia, Guatemala, Honduras, Mexico and Peru.

In the US, we are witnessing a sharp rise in detention of protesters. This appears to be in complete contradiction to the freedom of speech absolutism that this administration has been championing, after accusing the previous government of fostering a woke culture rooted in censorship.

And so, hundreds of university students protesting in solidarity with Palestinians have been dispersed or detained.

In April and May, more than 32 hundred students were arrested, accused of offences such as ‘material support for terrorism’.

Something similar is happening here in the UK.

Last month, the police arrested more than 900 activists in one day.

They were opposing the proscription of Palestine Action.

And as laws are increasingly being used against the very people they are meant to protect, we are also witnessing a surge in attacks on legal professionals.

Last year, on this very stage, we spoke of the appalling harassment against the legal team defending Hong Kong pro-democracy activist and media owner Jimmy Lai, who’s jailed in Hong Kong.

His lawyer, Caoilfhionn Gallagher, discussed the sustained and aggressive campaign against her and her family orchestrated by the Chinese government.

This is the price human rights defenders are now paying on a daily basis.

In the US, President Trump has openly challenged the legal system, accusing judges of being activists, and insisting that law firms undertake pro bono assistance for his administration’s causes.

He’s also issued a number of Executive Orders against several law firms, that have the power to destroy them.

These have included withdrawing government contracts or limiting access to government buildings and resources.

Now, some of these orders have been quashed by judges, but some law firms have capitulated, aligning their work to the policies and interests of the new US administration.

And – of course- all of this is happening in conjunction with the most rapid acceleration and adoption of technology the world has ever seen.

Technology and the path forward

The potential of Artificial Intelligence as an economic driver is immense.

PWC estimates that AI adoption will boost global GDP by 15% in the next 10 years.

By then, every new dollar spent on AI solutions, will contribute almost $5 to the global economy.

As of the start of this month, the world’s top companies developing AI have a combined market cap of almost $22 trillion. That’s more than the GDP of China.

And so, as the world shifts towards autocratic rule, we are also seeing the relationship between state and big tech changing.

This is very evident in the US.

The real implications of these new dynamics are yet to play out.

But fundamental questions are emerging.

Take freedom of speech, and the capitulation of fact checking and content moderation from all social media platforms.

Some activists are already using the term techno-authoritarianism to describe a society where autocrats exploit technology to consolidate power, stifle dissent and to control the information narrative.

From the collection of biometrics to mass surveillance, whose interests will the policies of our governments serve?

How will regulatory frameworks keep pace with the speed and scale of AI?

And who will win this global race, from a business and a geo-political perspective?

These are huge questions reshaping the future of democracy, which is the theme that runs through both days here at Trust Conference.

With our first two panels we’ll take a deep dive into the many ways in which our democratic institutions are being attacked, as the world shifts towards authoritarianism.

We’ll be joined on stage by leaders from academia, media, technology, activism, and the legal profession.

What’s at stake? And how can we fight back?

From there, we’ll be taking a closer look at some of the hidden implications behind the power and the promise of AI.

We’ll welcome tech activist and whistleblower Christopher Wylie, who will share the findings of his investigation over the dystopian vision of the world, secretly championed by some of the top players in Big Tech.

This afternoon’s conversations will be focused on issues around weaponisation of the law. We’ll take a close look at ‘Foreign Agent Laws’.

What were they established for? And how are they increasingly being weaponised to silence dissent?

From Russia to Georgia, from Kyrgyzstan to Slovakia to Bulgaria, these laws are spreading like wildfire, threatening anyone who commits a crime against the security or the political interests of the State.

We’ll be presenting some of the work done by the Thomson Reuters Foundation to map these trends, with the goal of empowering civil society and legal professionals to understand and to counter these threats.

And we’ll be showcasing real life examples of the nefarious consequences of Foreign Agent Laws.

We’ll be joined by Alsu Kurmasheva, a journalist of Radio Free Europe who spent nine months in a Russian prison accused of spreading ‘fake news’ about the Russian army. Alsu will be joined on stage by the lawyer who represented her, Can Yeğinsu.

And we’ll end the day by taking stock of the many challenges faced by public interest media.

Rising authoritarianism, increased legal challenges, disinformation, lack of trust in media, dropping revenue and rising tech costs. It’s the perfect storm.

We’ll first zoom in on a specific case: the decision to ban the Associated Press from the White House over its use of the term ‘Gulf of Mexico’.

Then we’ll zoom out to look at some of the systemic and seismic challenges facing the news industry.

We’ll be joined by some of the world’s leading journalists who are coming together to share candid insights related to their efforts to uphold the truth in the current environment.

Tomorrow, we’ll be taking a closer look at how we put into practice a vision for AI that prioritises people over profit and protects our fundamental rights.

As geopolitical shifts are increasingly influenced by the AI race, we’ll be looking at the responsibilities of governments, tech companies, alongside businesses, courts and civil society, to ensure new technologies indeed serve humanity.

Against these escalating threats to global freedoms, the work of the Thomson Reuters Foundation has never been more critical.

Despite an increasingly complex and dangerous environment, we continue to leverage our media, legal and data-driven expertise to foster free, fair and informed societies.

A new world order is emerging but is not yet fixed.

It can still be shaped.

And that’s why Trust Conference is such a pivotal moment for us, as it brings together our partners, our donors and our beneficiaries: You.

You believe, as we do, that the future of democracy is dependent on protecting free and independent journalism, equitable access to the law, and business practices that are fair and sustainable for societies.

Over the course of the next two days, we’ll be dissecting many critical issues, examining how they interconnect, how they impact our freedoms and civil liberties – and how, together, we can halt the backsliding of democracy.

This afternoon, we’ll be running multiple panels with discussions ranging from the power of Freedom of Information Laws, to the way in which Gen Z is reshaping the definition and the consumption of ‘news’.

Now, I want to take this moment to say thank you to all of our speakers.

Nobody gets paid to speak at Trust Conference. And we don’t take this for granted.

I also want to say thank you to our event partners: Context, FT Strategies, Civicus and the Mozilla Foundation. Your support is so valued and appreciated.

And of course, I want to thank our supporters.

It’s because of their generosity that this event can be free to attend.

And so, huge thanks to our Platinum Supporter, the People’s Postcode Lottery.

We are incredibly grateful for your continued trust in us, and for your commitment to this initiative.

I would also like to thank the Siegel Family Endowment and the Omidyar Network.

Omidyar Network is also kindly hosting our drinks reception tonight.

I’m excited that this year, our media partner is Devex, the platform for the global development community.

And of course, I would like to thank my phenomenal team at the Thomson Reuters Foundation, who have worked so hard for so many months to put together all of this.

If there’s one message that I hope you take away from this conference, it’s this: the erosion of democracy is not inevitable.

The threats are real, but so is our capacity for resistance.

Every person in this room – every journalist, every lawyer, every activist, every business leader – has a role to play.

The work you do, the stories you tell, the cases you defend, and the values you uphold are the building blocks of a more just and more resilient world.

And so, I want to thank you.

Thank you for your courage.

Thank you for your commitment.

Thank you for everything you do to defend democracy, when it has never mattered more.

Enjoy the Conference.